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Application of modeling and forecasting capabilities in analytical tools of the risk management system in the Federal Customs Service

In present-day conditions risk management in the Federal Customs Service of the RF is connected with handling and analyzing a large amount of different information on retrospective, real and predictable state of key indicators in foreign trade and activity of customs authorities. To effectively support making decisions in the risk management field, software tools of analysis, modeling and forecasting can be used.
In whole, the application field of such tools can be different depending on problems to solve - from local tools for producing short-term forecasts with several key indicators to complex full-featured systems of modeling and forecasting covering hundreds of interrelated indicators (including key ones) with different activities. Such systems are used in a number of companies, financial institutions and public authorities.
Nowadays one of the important goals in the Federal Customs Service of Russia is management of violation risk of the customs legislation. The problems of risk management system improvement in the Federal Customs Service of Russia take the centre stage. That becomes particularly important in current economic condition when goods turnover and receipt of money from customs payments in the federal budget are decreasing. In addition, some people, who transfer goods, tend to “optimize” their expenses in customs registration of goods.
Analytical tools of the risk management system are in the high light as just well-organized thorough analysis and modeling all information at hand on goods, transport means, documents and persons allow making efficient decisions and holding successful activities for customs surveillance. Efficient application of modeling and forecasting tools in the process of analysis and risk management is one of the components of successful work for abatement of damage from violation customs legislation.
To solve such problems an automated system which supports decisions making in the field of analysis and risk management, is created and implemented in the Federal Customs Service of Russia. This system ensures modeling and forecasting the degree of divergence in statistics indicators of foreign trade which in turn can be potentially connected with an unreliable goods declaring.

Technological subsystems of the developed program feature include the above-mentioned data storage as well as an administration and audit subsystem, a data upload subsystem and a reference data running.

Functional block of data analysis and models plot area management allows experts analyzing indicators connected with risks presented in different profiles (goods, countries, customs authorities and others) and generated with data from different sources. Examples of analyzed indicators are volume of foreign trade in monetary and weight terms, amount of customs payments, volume of goods production and consumption in Russia, significance of differences in statistics data.
The hallmark of this analysis is that by their results a localized list of goods and countries that will be used in modeling and forecasting is formed.
For analysis the capabilities of multidimensional Express-Analysis (OLAP), specific report forms which ensure data visualization in charts and business graphics (including electronic maps of areas).